23 Nov 2025
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On February 1, 2025, Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin will host a Bundesliga fixture that feels less like a game and more like a battle for survival — 1. FC Union Berlin versus RB Leipzig. Both teams are reeling. One is fighting to avoid relegation chatter; the other, to salvage a top-four finish. And neither can stop conceding goals.
Two Teams, One Problem: Can’t Stop the Goals
Union Berlin, known as Die Eisernen, are the Bundesliga’s lowest-scoring side this season — just 16 goals in 23 matches. That’s less than one per game. But their real crisis is in defense. In their last four matches, they’ve let in 12 goals. Three losses. One win — against Mainz on January 19 — and even that felt like a fluke. Before that, they’d lost five straight at home. Then came the 3-0 thrashing by St. Pauli, where Union had 56% possession and two shots on target. How? That’s the question haunting Steffen Baumgart’s locker room.
RB Leipzig aren’t much better. Marco Rose’s side sits fifth, still in Europa League contention, but their form is a mess. They’ve conceded 20 goals in their last nine games — 14 of those in just five Bundesliga matches. Their Champions League exit in December, a 1-0 loss to Sturm Graz, was the final nail. Since then, they’ve won just one of five games across all competitions. And away from home? Seven defeats in nine road trips. The 2-2 draw against Bayer Leverkusen on January 25 wasn’t a moral victory. It was a warning. Three shots on goal. Sixty-six percent possession. And still, they needed an own goal from Edmond Tapsoba to salvage a point.
Head-to-Head History: Leipzig’s Psychological Edge
Leipzig have gone unbeaten in the last three meetings with Union Berlin — including a 0-0 stalemate back in September. But the broader history tells a different story. In 31 all-time encounters, Union Berlin have won nine times, drawn 10, lost 12. At home, they’ve actually held their own: five wins, six draws, four losses against Leipzig. That’s why this match matters — it’s not just about points. It’s about pride. About proving they belong in the same league.
Lois Openda leads Leipzig’s attack with 14 goals this season. Benedict Hollerbach, Union’s top scorer, has just six. Benjamin Šeško, Leipzig’s assist king, has 11 — more than half of Union’s total goals. The numbers don’t lie: Leipzig have the firepower. But can they finish? And can Union hold on long enough to strike?
Injuries and Tactics: Who’s Left Standing?
Leipzig’s midfield is in shambles. Forzan Assan Ouedraogo, Kevin Kampl, and Xaver Schlager are all out. That means Arthur Vermeeren and Amadou Haidara — two young, talented but untested pairings — will be tasked with shielding a defense that’s already leaking. Rose might shift to a 4-2-3-1, but without Kampl’s composure, the midfield could collapse under pressure.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, are expected to stick with a 5-3-2, a formation they used in their pre-season friendly against Olympiakos. That means two strikers up top — Hollerbach and a likely debutant — with three center-backs anchoring the backline. But with Nsoki still injured and Markgraf not quite match-fit, their defensive shape looks thin. The last time they played a 5-3-2, they lost 3-0 to St. Pauli. Same formation. Same result.
Why This Match Matters Beyond the Table
For Union Berlin, this isn’t just about climbing out of the relegation zone. It’s about proving they can compete. They’ve been the underdogs for years — but lately, they’ve looked like they’ve given up. A win here would spark belief. A loss? The whispers about Baumgart’s future will grow louder. He’s already been linked with a return to Cologne if no playoff is triggered — and that’s not a good sign.
For Leipzig, it’s about momentum. They’re chasing a Champions League spot, but their inconsistency is becoming a narrative. Rose is the only coach in the Bundesliga to beat Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen since 2023 — a huge achievement. But beating Union Berlin? That’s expected. Failing to do so would be a scandal.
Bookmakers have Leipzig as +120 favorites — a 45% chance of victory. The draw is +220. And Over 2.5 Goals? That’s the shortest price on the board. That tells you everything. Both defenses are broken. Both attacks are desperate. Goals are coming.
What’s Next? The Ripple Effect
After this match, Union Berlin’s final two games are away at Mainz and home against Augsburg. They need points. Now. Leipzig, meanwhile, face Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg in their next two fixtures. A loss here could drop them into a five-team battle for fourth — and a Europa League spot that feels increasingly out of reach.
The last time these two met in Leipzig, on November 13, 2025 (a likely typo — probably meant 2023), Union won 2-1. Goals from Janik Haberer and Robin Knoche. A crowd of 47,069. The kind of night that defines a club. If Union can recreate that energy here, in front of their own fans, they might just pull off another miracle.
But this isn’t fairy tale football. It’s gritty, tense, high-stakes Bundesliga football. And both teams are tired. Both teams are scared. And neither has the luxury of time.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is RB Leipzig struggling defensively despite having top-tier talent?
RB Leipzig’s defensive issues stem from a combination of tactical instability and key injuries. With midfielders like Kampl and Schlager sidelined, the team lacks structure in front of the backline. Their high press often leaves gaps, and center-backs like Tapsoba and Upamecano have been inconsistent. They’ve conceded 14 goals in their last five Bundesliga games — the worst defensive run in the league over that span.
Can Union Berlin’s attack do anything against Leipzig’s shaky defense?
Union Berlin’s attack is limited — only 16 goals all season — but Leipzig’s defense is even worse. Hollerbach and whoever leads the line will have space behind Leipzig’s fullbacks, who push high. If Union can win second balls and exploit transitions, they have a real chance. Their last win in Leipzig came with just two shots on target. Sometimes, you don’t need much — just one moment of clarity.
What’s the significance of the 5-3-2 formation for Union Berlin?
The 5-3-2 is a defensive shape Union Berlin has used when desperate — and they’re desperate now. It prioritizes compactness over creativity, aiming to neutralize Leipzig’s width. But it’s risky. If Leipzig dominate possession — as they did against Leverkusen — Union’s midfield trio could be overrun. The formation worked once this season, against Mainz. But it failed against St. Pauli. The difference? Focus. And maybe a little luck.
How do the injuries impact RB Leipzig’s chances?
Losing Kampl, Schlager, and Ouedraogo leaves Leipzig without their most experienced midfielders. Vermeeren and Haidara are talented but unproven in high-pressure games. Without Kampl’s distribution and Schlager’s defensive grit, Leipzig’s transitions slow down. That’s bad news against a team like Union Berlin, which thrives on counterattacks. The midfield is now their weakest link — and Union will target it.
Is this match a turning point for either team’s season?
Absolutely. For Union Berlin, a win could lift them out of the relegation zone and reignite belief. A loss? It could make the final two games feel like a funeral march. For Leipzig, a win keeps them in the top-four race. A loss, especially with Dortmund and Freiburg next, could bury their Champions League hopes. This isn’t just three points — it’s momentum. And momentum is everything in February.